Home > Global Tropical Hazard Outlook Week 2 and 3

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According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, the Global Tropical Hazard Outlook is "a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following Wednesday." (Source: NWS Climate Prediction Center, Global Tropical Outlook)

In other words, The Global Tropical Hazard Outlook predicts what's likely to happen in the next two to three weeks in The Tropics (in terms of rainfall, temperature, tropical storms). It forecasts if there's a higher or lower chance of getting more (green) or less rain than usual (brown). It also predicts if temperatures are likely to be hotter (orange) or cooler than normal (blue). Finally, it identifies regions where tropical storms are more likely to form (red). The forecast covers large areas and doesn't focus on specific local conditions. It provides three probability levels for rainfall and temperature forecasts: 50%, 65%, and 80%. For tropical storm development, it gives probabilities of 20%, 40%, and 60%. The forecast period runs from Wednesday to the following Wednesday.

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