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000 AXNT20 KNHC 262332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo is centered near 19.3N 23.3W at 26/2100 UTC or 160 nm N of Sal Cabo Verde, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft in the NE quadrant. Gonzalo is a sheared storm with numerous moderate isolated strong convection extending from 18N to 28N between 16.5W and 20.5W. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move away from northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. Additional weakening is forecast, and Gonzalo is expected to become a remnant low in the next 12-24 hours. Swells generated by Gonzalo are expected to affect portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today before diminishing Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N68W through the Central Bahamas and into Cuba. Strong low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, producing seas of 8 to 12 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of 65W. Rough seas will follow the front through later this afternoon, before starting to subside through Sun morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 64W, south of 18N, moving west at near 10 kt.No significant convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 82W, S of 16N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave has moved well inland over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N22W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 11N61W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 22W and 40W, and from 10N to 15N between 49W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A dissipating frontal boundary extends across the basin from the western tip of Cuba to just offshore Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of this boundary. Scattered moderate convection is also being induced by a surface trough in the central Bay of Campeche. Gentle or weaker winds and slights seas prevail through the basin. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will gradually increase from the early to the middle part of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades over most of the basin. Seas are 2 ft or less in the NW and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. The eastern end of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a cluster of scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore of central and western Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is present across the waters between Jamaica and Cuba. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Post- Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo and on significant swell propagating southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to 65W. Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.8N 43.9W at 26/2100 UTC or 970 nm WSW of the Azores, moving S at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast, and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from from 31N68W through the central Bahamas and into Cuba. Numerous strong convection is ongoing E of this front, from NE Cuba through the Turks and Caicos, then N of 23N between 65W 72W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 23N and ahead of the front to 62W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in N swell. Behind the front, moderate NW to N winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, a surface trough supported by a mid-level low is inducing numerous moderate convection from 24N to 30N between 54W and 62W. Moderate lo locally fresh winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are present in the vicinity of this trough. To the SE, a belt of moderate trades prevails from 10N to 21N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail S of the monsoon trough to 24N between 19W and 30W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are expected east of the front through the remainder of the weekend before diminishing. Rough seas behind the front will gradually subside through the remainder of the weekend. $$ Konarik