Home > Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion provides current information on major weather patterns and disturbances in tropical regions. It assists decision-making by detailing significant weather features, expected trends, the reasoning behind forecasts, model performance, and sometimes the confidence level in predictions. The Discussion is issued four times daily: 1:05 AM EST, 7:05 AM EST, 1:05 PM EST and 7:05 PM EST. The discussion is pulled from the NHC website, and a full description of it can be found by clicking here.
Please refresh this page to view the latest discussion.
Join our official Facebook group for updates and more! Connect with fellow weather enthusiasts today!
000 AXNT20 KNHC 231035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jan 23 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pres center is expected to develop over the W Gulf today along the trough currently analyzed along 96W. The strong pressure gradient in the area will support gale-force winds W of the low/trough early on Fri. Seas under the strongest winds will reach 12 to 16 ft. Both winds and seas should gradually subside beginning on Friday night. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Widespread fresh to strong trades and 8 to 11 ft seas are expected across the southwestern and south-central basin through this weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight through Thursday morning, with winds reaching near-gale force in this area each night Thu through this weekend. Seas will peak at 10 to 13 ft during the strongest winds. For more details on these features, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: Large long-period N swell is sustaining 12 to 14 ft seas in the eastern Atlantic, east of 30W and north of 24N. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted inside this area. The N swell will continue to decay today, which should allow seas to subside below 12 ft on Friday. For more details on the large swell, please refer to the latest MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast at the website: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 02S41W. Scattered showers are noted S of the monsoon trough mainly E of 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section about the upcoming Gale Warning. A surface trough is analyzed along 96W. Another surface trough at the east-central and southeastern Gulf is triggering patchy clouds and showers there. Otherwise, a surface ridge stretches southward from a 1030 mb high near New Orleans, Louisiana to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate N swell are occurring at the southern Gulf S of 23N. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NE to NW winds occurring in the far south portion of the basin, along with rough seas will dissipate today. The pressure gradient will strengthens in the Bay of Campeche area as a low pres develops producing gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas W of the trough on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish by Sat. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds are expected across the basin this weekend as high pressure builds in the south-central United States. Strong SE winds and rough seas will be possible offshore of Texas late Sat into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning. A stationary front extends southwestward from central Cuba to northwestern Honduras. In its wake, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are occurring in the Yucatan Channel, and east of the Yucatan Peninsula. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1029 mb high at the central Atlantic near 31N42W to near Jamaica. This feature continues to support moderate to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas across the north-central and northeastern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern basin east of the stationary front. For the forecast, gale-force winds will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through this morning. After this, pulses to near-gale strengths are expected in the same area through Sun. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas are occurring elsewhere across the basin and will continue through the weekend. The long-period E swell in the area will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the weekend. The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft will prevail in the wake of the front, including the Yucatan Channel, through tonight. Moderate to fresh NE winds, pulsing to strong at times, and rough seas will occur in the northwestern basin through Fri as troughing prevails in the region. The pressure gradient across the W Caribbean will increase on Fri night and continue through the weekend. Strong NE winds and rough seas are expected through this period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the large north swell in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends southwestward from a 1015 mb now E of Bermuda to 31N65W to the northern Bahamas, then continues as a stationary front to beyond W Cuba. Fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted behind this front. Scattered showers are present near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. Convergent trades are producing scattered moderate convection from 02N to 07N between 38W and the coast of northeastern Brazil, Suriname and French Guiana. A large 1029 mb high near 31N38W and its related broad surface ridge continue to dominate the central and part of the western Atlantic. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate mixed swells are evident north of 20N between 55W and the cold front, and also north of 26N between 35W and 55W. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are dominating waters elsewhere north of 20N and west of 35W, and also the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic basin west of 35W. For the forecast, the cold front will progress eastward through this morning, with fresh northerly winds and rough seas expected in its wake, mainly N of 25N and W of 65W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades and rough seas will prevail through the weekend south of 22N. Low pressure is expected to form off the east coast of Florida today, and moderate to fresh N to NW winds will occur to the north and west of the low through Fri morning. The low will strengthen and move northeastward Fri into Sat, promoting widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds north of 22N and west of 70W by Fri night. An associated cold front will trail the low pressure and move eastward this weekend, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in its wake. $$ ERA