Home > Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion provides current information on major weather patterns and disturbances in tropical regions. It assists decision-making by detailing significant weather features, expected trends, the reasoning behind forecasts, model performance, and sometimes the confidence level in predictions. The Discussion is issued four times daily: 1:05 AM EST, 7:05 AM EST, 1:05 PM EST and 7:05 PM EST. The discussion is pulled from the NHC website, and a full description of it can be found by clicking here.
Please refresh this page to view the latest discussion.
Join our official Facebook group for updates and more! Connect with fellow weather enthusiasts today!
000 AXNT20 KNHC 050934 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 04N-16N, and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 33N, south of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W, south of 17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, south of 20N, moving W at at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N between 65W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N20W to 08N23W, from 08N25W to 08N32W, from 07N35N to 08N42W, and from 08N44W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 12N between 25W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 27N from the western Atlantic, across the Florida peninsula, and across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a weak trough is positioned over the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The scatterometer also indicated fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras and into the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off northeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong ESE winds are forecast at night Mon and Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 74W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean waters today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered near 27N42W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a dissipating stationary front that extends from 1016 mb low pressure near 25N52W to Bermuda to 31N75W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning today. $$ Christensen