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641 AXNT20 KNHC 170505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic waters through the coast of Guinea-bissau near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 04N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 10N and west of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends into the Gulf of America, maintaining fairly dry weather conditions across the basin. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the western half of the Gulf, mainly west of 90W, north of Yucatan and in the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are moderate. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico is affecting the western Gulf. The smoke mixes with haze to create a smoky atmosphere. Durante this time of the year, dense smoke can be seen over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, and in the Gulf of America reducing visibility for mariners. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through early Tue evening. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy conditions at the west- central and southwestern Gulf into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough extends from the Atlantic across Hispaniola into the central and SW Caribbean enhances the evening showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Hispaniola and the NE Antilles. A few showers are also noted in the SW Caribbean, while generally dry weather conditions prevail in the NW Caribbean. The subtropical ridge north of the islands sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. A cut-off low is forecast to develop along the trough axis N of Puerto Rico on Sat. This will continue to enhance the developing of showers and thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean over the next couple of days. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras late in the afternoons and at night through midweek next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas over the south-central basin will continue through Sat morning. Similar conditions are expected in the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage for the rest of tonight and Sat night. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will persist over the Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. On Sun night, increasing trades along with building seas are expected across the eastern basin, which will then shift westward across the central and southwestern basin through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The aforementioned upper-level trough is also helping to induce an area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, roughly between 60W and 68W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 28N68W to 21N68W. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 31N20 to 24N42W to 25N50W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds, with light showers, is associated with this system. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NE winds in the wake of the trough. Seas behind the trough are 5-9 ft. The extensive 1027 mb high pressure positioned in the central Atlantic near 32N45W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic forecast waters. Its associated ridge extends westward toward the Bahamas and Florida. An area of fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are found south of 22N and between 40W and 60W due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the N and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-9 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. An early surge of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical Atlantic reaching the Lesser Antilles. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August, and begins to subside after mid-August. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front will stall just north of 31N and west of 70W, bringing moderate to locally fresh SW winds north of 28N from Sat evening through late Mon. A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic extending westward across Florida will support gentle winds south of 28N. In the long term, fresh southwesterly winds and building seas are expected to develop east of northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas near midweek next week, in response to another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night into next week. $$ Delgado