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The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion provides current information on major weather patterns and disturbances in tropical regions. It assists decision-making by detailing significant weather features, expected trends, the reasoning behind forecasts, model performance, and sometimes the confidence level in predictions. The Discussion is issued four times daily: 1:05 AM EST, 7:05 AM EST, 1:05 PM EST and 7:05 PM EST. The discussion is pulled from the NHC website, and a full description of it can be found by clicking here.
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 242112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Feb 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell propagating across the western waters is supporting very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft over the waters N of a line from 28N73W to 26N68W to 30N55W. These very rough seas will propagate eastward through Wed, reaching the waters near 45W before subsiding below 12 ft. Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters is supporting very rough seas of 12 to 18 ft over the waters N of a line from 20N41W to 30N22W. This swell will continue to spread eastward over the remainder of the eastern Atlantic waters N of 20N through midweek. Very rough seas will linger over these far eastern waters through the end of the week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough stays mostly over the African Continent. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 02N15W to 02N25W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is noted from 01S to 03N between 27W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered over the NE Gulf near 29N86W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, winds are in the gentle to moderate range. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range SE of a line from south Florida to the SW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, rough seas in the far SE Gulf and the Yucatan Channel will subside through the evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf tonight and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This next front is expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Mexican coastal waters Sat, dissipating by Sun as high pressure returns. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from SW Haiti to NE Nicaragua. Behind the front, strong N winds and rough seas prevail. Fresh to strong winds are off the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 6-7 ft range. Elsewhere east of the front, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through mid- week. The strong winds and rough seas will gradually diminish and subside tonight through Wed as the front weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Wed through Sat and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed northerly swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swell in the western Atlantic, and another Significant Swell in the central and eastern Atlantic. A weakening cold front extends from SE of Bermuda near 31N57W southwestward to the N-central coast of the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong winds are N of 29N and west of the front to 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W of the front. Rough to very rough seas in NW to N swell is behind the front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 25N within 180 nm east of the front. Farther east, a cold front enters the waters near 31N19W and extends to 27N28W. The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 31N40W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Aside from the very rough seas 12 ft or greater discussed in the special features section above, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the much of the waters W of a line from the SE Bahamas to 27N55W. Rough seas are also E of 55W to a line from 00N44W to 31N20W. Elsewhere moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to move slowly southeastward and continue to weaken, stalling from near 29N55W to the NE Dominican Republic Wed, before drifting W and dissipating Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the front tonight through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu through Sat. A weak front may move off the SE U.S. coast late in the weekend. Meanwhile, seas will gradually subside through mid-week, lingering to rough over the SE waters through the end of the period. $$ AL