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000 AXNT20 KNHC 270915 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Aug 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 16N southward, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05.5N to 10.5N between 31.5W and 39W. A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 21N southward to Guyana, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 15N to 18N between 54W and 58W. A tropical wave is moving from the central to western Caribbean Sea, analyzed currently near 79W from between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to eastern Panama. This tropical wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 12.5N to 16.5N between 79W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 06N36.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36.5W to ne the border of Brazil and French Guiana at 04.5N51.5W. Other than the convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 10N between Africa and 19W, and from 03.5N to 06.5N between 38W and 40W. Coupling with an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering some scattered moderate convection near the coast of northern Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from near Tampa Bay, Florida to across the central Gulf to near offshore Galveston, Texas. Isolate to widely scattered showers are near this features. A surface trough is analyzed in the western Bay of Campeche supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 22.5N and west of 92W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern to central Bay of Campeche due to the diurnal surface trough just offshore the coast of the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 5 ft there. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, weak fronts or frontal troughs will linger over the northern Gulf through tonight before lifting NW of the area by Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the S-central and SW Gulf nightly as a diurnal trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to locally moderate seas are forecast across the basin through the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving from the central to the western Caribbean, currently analyzed near 79W. This wave is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 21N between 78W and 85W. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are in the central Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted across the approach to the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin, except gentle and variable in the SW Caribbean S of 11N. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft outside of the Central Caribbean. Some scattered showers are noted in the Central Caribbean behind the tropical wave, while the next tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, and the winds associated with the tropical wave near 79W will become confined to the S-central waters tonight into Thu. Fresh winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through today. Decaying northerly swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. A surface trough is found just SE south of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and between these boundaries. Aside from convection associated with a tropical wave, described in the section above, the remainder of the basin is generally dry, as a weak pressure gradient is inducing gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mainly northerly swell W of 35W, except 3 to 5 ft N of 25N and west of 68W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh winds are from 18N to 21.5N between Africa and 20W, with locally fresh winds elsewhere offshore northern Africa to and through the Canary Islands passages. Seas are 6 to 9 ft E of 35W in NW to N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, a slow moving front extending from 31N76W to N Florida will reach from 31N75W to central Florida will gradually stall through tonight, then lift NW of the area on Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just SE of the front. A ridge will dominate the remainder of the forecast region. Another weak front may move into the NW waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Quite tranquil marine conditions will prevail by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky