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AXNT20 KNHC 261051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America/Western Caribbean: 
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves and abundant
tropical moisture over the same area will continue to trigger 
deep convection capable of producing heavy rain across the western
Caribbean and parts of central America through Friday. This will 
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslide, especially
in hilly terrains. In addition, divergent flow aloft will also 
increases the chance of strong thunderstorms with dangerous 
lightning and gusty winds. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be
near the east of coast of northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala
and Belize. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the 
region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along
28W and S of 14N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant 
convection is associated with this tropical wave. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is is analyzed with axis along
43W from 15N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along the wave axis. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W and south of 17N, 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The convection related to this wave 
is located over the East Pacific waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W and south of 19N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Aided by divergent flow aloft, 
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails S of 
20N between 79W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 10N29W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 10N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave near 09N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along both sections of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and at the southern Bay
of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the northeastern Gulf 
is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E 
winds and moderate seas are evident at the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Light to gentle winds with slight seas prevail at the 
northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night over the next several days
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section about potential heavy 
rainfall in the western Caribbean, and the Tropical Waves section
for convection in the entire Caribbean Sea. 

Strong with near-gale E winds and rough seas dominate the south-
central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with moderate seas are
elsewhere across the central portion of the basin. Light to 
gentle winds and slight seas in moderate NE swell prevail near 
Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including 
the Windward and Mona Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific
monsoon and the passage of a couple of tropical waves will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the 
central and SW Caribbean through the end of the week. Winds are 
expected to reach near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Strong winds over the
Gulf of Honduras will develop today and continue through the
weekend due to a tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge, and a broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific 
region, offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A surface trough near the Bahamas is joining forces with an
upper-level low over Florida to produce scattered moderate
convection off the Florida west coast, and over the Bahamas. 
Farther east, another upper-level low near 28N55W is causing 
isolated thunderstorms north of 25N between 53W and 60W.

A subtropical ridge extending from a 1027 mb high across 34N32W 
to a 1021 mb high near 27N64W is supporting gentle winds with
moderate seas north of 26N between 50W and the Florida-southern 
Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds 
and moderate seas are present north of 26N between 35W and 50W. 
To the south from 08N to 26N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser 
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with moderate to rough
seas are noted. Gentle with moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated 
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week, 
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of 
25N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse 
late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through early 
next week. 

$$
ERA
  
  

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