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AXNT20 KNHC 270915
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Aug 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 16N southward, 
moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 05.5N to 10.5N between 31.5W and 39W.

A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 21N 
southward to Guyana, and moving westward at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 15N to 18N between 54W
and 58W.

A tropical wave is moving from the central to western Caribbean
Sea, analyzed currently near 79W from between Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands to eastern Panama. This tropical wave is moving  
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 12.5N to 16.5N between 79W and 85W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Mauritania
and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 06N36.5W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N36.5W to ne the border of Brazil and French Guiana
at 04.5N51.5W. Other than the convection described above with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to
10N between Africa and 19W, and from 03.5N to 06.5N between 38W
and 40W.

Coupling with an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East 
Pacific monsoon trough is triggering some scattered moderate 
convection near the coast of northern Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to across the central Gulf to near offshore Galveston,
Texas. Isolate to widely scattered showers are near this features. 
A surface trough is analyzed in the western Bay of Campeche 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 22.5N and west
of 92W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern to central Bay
of Campeche due to the diurnal surface trough just offshore the 
coast of the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 5 ft there. 
Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are 
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, weak fronts or frontal troughs will linger over
the northern Gulf through tonight before lifting NW of the area 
by Thu. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the 
basin, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the 
S-central and SW Gulf nightly as a diurnal trough develops over 
the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to 
locally moderate seas are forecast across the basin through the 
upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving from the central to the western Caribbean,
currently analyzed near 79W. This wave is producing scattered 
showers and thunderstorms S of 21N between 78W and 85W. Fresh to 
strong winds and moderate to rough seas are in the central 
Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted across the approach to the
Windward Passage. Mainly moderate trades prevail across the
remainder of the basin, except gentle and variable in the SW
Caribbean S of 11N. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft outside of the
Central Caribbean. Some scattered showers are noted in the Central
Caribbean behind the tropical wave, while the next tropical wave
is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, and the winds associated with the tropical wave
near 79W will become confined to the S-central waters tonight 
into Thu. Fresh winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through
today. Decaying northerly swell will propagate across the 
tropical Atlantic waters today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Fort Pierce, 
Florida. A surface trough is found just SE south of the front. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted near and between these 
boundaries. Aside from convection associated with a tropical 
wave, described in the section above, the remainder of the basin 
is generally dry, as a weak pressure gradient is inducing gentle 
to moderate winds. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mainly northerly swell W
of 35W, except 3 to 5 ft N of 25N and west of 68W. In the far 
eastern Atlantic, fresh winds are from 18N to 21.5N between Africa
and 20W, with locally fresh winds elsewhere offshore northern 
Africa to and through the Canary Islands passages. Seas are 6 to 9
ft E of 35W in NW to N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a slow moving front extending from 
31N76W to N Florida will reach from 31N75W to central Florida will
gradually stall through tonight, then lift NW of the area on Thu.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just 
SE of the front. A ridge will dominate the remainder of the 
forecast region. Another weak front may move into the NW waters by
the end of the week into the weekend. Quite tranquil marine 
conditions will prevail by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
  
  

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