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000 AXNT20 KNHC 042157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW and N-central Tropical Atlantic Gale Warning: Please see the next Special Feature for associated Significant W-NW Swells. SW and N-central Tropical Atlantic Significant Swell Event: The next cold front will impact the SW N Atlantic waters beginning Wed night into early Thu, with associated gale-force winds developing Thu night then persisting through at least the end of the week. These winds will result in a large area of significant swell behind the front with very rough seas from 25N to 31N east of 75W by early Fri. Seas are forecast to peak around 17 ft near 31N. Looking ahead, these swells will likely get reinforced and build even larger during the upcoming weekend as the gale-force winds also get reinforced and expand through the weekend. NE Tropical Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Gale-force winds associated with a deep low pressure at the north-central to east Atlantic continues to generate large, long-period NW to N swell across the central subtropical Atlantic waters. As a result, expect seas of 12 to 16 ft from 26N to 31N between east of 52W. This area of very rough seas will completely move east of 35W by Fri. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07.5N12W, then extends southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N20W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N45.5W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from across much of the waters south of 06N to the Equator. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico at 23N98W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas follow the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 26N and ahead of the front, with mainly light and variable wind elsewhere ahead of the front. Slight to locally moderate winds are ahead of the front. Some scattered showers are likely within about 120 nm ahead of the front with isolated thunderstorms possible in the NE Gulf coastal waters per coastal radar data. For the forecast, the front and associated winds and seas are forecast to move southward across the Gulf waters through late Thu morning. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area from W to E Thu night into Fri as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf. Then, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands westward across the E and central Caribbean to near 14N78W. West of the front, a surface trough is analyzed and runs from near the Cayman Islands to 10N80W. A large area of low level clouds, with possible showers, is west of the trough axis over the NW Caribbean and Central America. Fresh to locally NE to E winds are noted over the central Caribbean, on either side of the front, forecast to dissipate by tonight. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere east of 85W, and gentle to moderate west of 85W over the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in the central Caribbean south of 18N, and mainly 4 to 7 ft elsewhere, except locally higher in and near NE and E Caribbean Atlantic Passages. For the forecast, a cold front, currently moving across the Gulf of America, will reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu morning and will merge with the above mentioned trough. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow this front, forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken. Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean associated with the front will persist through Sat, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a new Atlantic developing Gale Warning as well as two significant swell events. A cold front reaches from 31N29W to 22N50W where it transitions to stationary while extending to the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front north of 27N between 20W and 50W, with fresh to strong NE winds also south of 27N within about 120 nm west of the front. Associated seas of 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 28N13W to 20N42W to the Mona Passage and east of about 67W. High pressure of 1020 mb is southeast of the front near 25N25W. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds elsewhere east of the front. Seas are 6 to 9 ft east of front away from the rough seas area described above. A 1025 mb high is west of the front near 29N64W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate and anticyclonic under the high from 27N to 30N and west of 55W with moderate to locally fresh winds across the remainder of the waters west of the front. Seas are 3 to 7 ft west of about 67W. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly stationary through tonight, then begin to lift N on Thu while weakening. Another cold front will move off NE Florida on Thu. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected on either side of the front, across the waters N of 29N, Thu night through Fri night, when gale conditions are expected to shift E of the forecast area. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat. In addition, a strong low pressure building N of the forecast region could bring gale force winds and very rough to high seas across the N waters N of 27N and E of 74W Sat through Sun. $$ Lewitsky