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114 AXNT20 KNHC 070527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Aug 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 15N and between 30W and 38W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. This feature has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N35W and then to 08N53W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 12N and east of 30W and also south of 12N and between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft over the eastern Gulf waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially off SW Florida. Similar convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz. At the surface, a 1022 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 23N and west of 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters over the next several days supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh east winds are likely at night north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula the remainder of the week, as a trough develops there daily and drifts westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the NW Caribbean, especially north of 20N, and in the SW Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are moderate to locally rough. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure north of basin combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean overnight tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast through Sun. In the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing winds to fresh speeds are expected overnight tonight, then again Sat night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details on a tropical wave near 35W with associated convection and tropical cyclone formation potential. Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers west of 74W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge centered south of Bermuda. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 24N and west of 60W. The central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure system near 35N43W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident between 40W and 60W and north of the monsoon trough. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to occasionally strong N-NE winds and moderate seas are present north of 20N and east of 22W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and between 30W and 42W. Moderate to locally rough seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend and early next week while the system moves northward to northeastward, remaining well off the east coast of the United States. This system, combined with a surface trough over the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba, will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the region through the end of the week, except for occasional fresh winds pulsing off Hispaniola through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some producing rough seas and gusty winds, that are associated to the surface trough, are expected to continue over the waters surrounding the Bahamas and westward from there to the offshore waters of South Florida and the Keys through Thu. Looking ahead, a tropical cyclone may approach the eastern waters Sun into Mon while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. $$ Delgado